Academic writing

 2020-2023

Refereed works

• Woodward, A., Rivers, C. Case investigation and contact tracing in U.S. state and local health departments: sustaining capacities and applying lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic. (2023). Health Security.
• Woodward, A., Rivers, C. Building case investigation and contact tracing programs in US state and local health departments: a conceptual framework. (2023). Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness. doi:10.1017/dmp.2023.205
• Phelan, A., Sorrell, E., Standley, C., Watson, C., Sauer, L., Rivers, M. COVID-19 has left the world less prepared for an influenza pandemic. (2023). Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02340-5
• Kraemer, M., Scarpino, S., Marivate, V., Gutierrez, B., Xu, B., Lee, G., Hawkins, G., Rivers, C., Pigott, D., Katz, R., Brownstein, S. (2021). Data curation during a pandemic and lessons learned from COVID-19. Nature Computational Science, 1(1), 9-10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-020-00015-6
• Pollett, S., Johansson, M., Reich, N., Brett-Major,  D., Del Valle, S., Venkatramanan, S., Lowe, R., Porco, T., Maljkvoci Berry, I., Deshpande, A., Kraemer, M., Blazes, D., Pan-ngum, W., Vespignani, A., Mate, S., Silal, S., Kandula, S., Sippy, R., Quandelacy, T., Morgan, J., Ball, J., Morton, L., Althouse, B., Pavlin, J., van Panhuis, W., Riley, S., Biggerstaff, M., Viboud, C., Brady, O., Rivers, C. (2021). Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLOS Medicine 18(10): e1003793. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793. Impact: This is the first guideline for the reporting of infectious disease models. It has been adopted as policy by the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• Reopening K-12 Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prioritizing Health, Equity, and Communities. (2020). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25858. Impact: This summer 2020 report was the first major report to discuss school reopening in the context of COVID-19. It was cited in the reopening plans for the states of Maryland, Virginia, Connecticut, and Minnesota. Soon after this report was published I was invited to testify in front of the House Oversight Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis on school reopening. I was joined by former Secretary of Education Arne Duncan, among other witnesses.
• Pollett, S., Johansson, M., Biggerstaff, M., Morton, L.C., Bazaco, S.L., Major, D.M.B., Stewart-Ibarra, A.M., Pavlin, J.A., Mate, S., Sippy, R. and Hartman, L.J., Reich, N., Berry, I.M., Chretien, J.P., Althouse, B., Myer, D., Viboud, C., Rivers, C. 2020. Identification and evaluation of epidemic prediction and forecasting reporting guidelines: A systematic review and a call for action. Epidemics, 33, p.100400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100400
• Pollett, S., & Rivers, C. (2020). Social media and the new world of scientific communication during the COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 71(16), 2184-2186. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa553
• Li, R., Rivers, C., Tan, Q., Murray, M. B., Toner, E., & Lipsitch, M. (2020). Estimated demand for US hospital inpatient and intensive care unit beds for patients with COVID-19 based on comparisons with Wuhan and Guangzhou, China. JAMA Network Open, 3(5), e208297-e208297. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8297. Impact: This paper has been cited over 150 times.
• Kobokovich, A. L., Hosangadi, D., & Rivers, C. (2020). Supporting social distancing for COVID-19 mitigation through community-based volunteer networks. American Journal of Public Health, 110(8), 1167-1168. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2020.305740
• Rivers, C., Pollett, S., & Viboud, C. (2020). The opportunities and challenges of an Ebola modeling research coordination group. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 14(7), e0008158. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008158
• Lee, W. N., Stück, D., Konty, K., Rivers, C., Brown, C. R., Zbikowski, S. M., & Foschini, L. (2020). Large-scale influenza vaccination promotion on a mobile app platform: a randomized controlled trial. Vaccine, 38(18), 3508-3514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.11.053

Monographs and policy reports

• The Rockefeller Foundation. Covid-19 Testing in K-12 Settings: A Playbook for Educators and Leaders. (2021). https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/The-RockefellerFoundation-Covid-19-K-12-Testing-Playbook-for-Educators-and-Leaders.pdf
• Warmbrod, K. L., West, R., Frieman, M., George, D., Martin, E., Rivers, C. Staying Ahead of the Variants: Policy Recommendations to Identify and Manage Current and Future Variants of Concern. (2021). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs\_archive/pubs-pdfs/2021/20210216-covid19-variants.pdf Impact: I was invited to testify in front of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology based on this report.
• Rivers, C., Silcox, C., Potter, C., Franklin, M., Ray, R., Gill, M., McClellan, M. Risk Assessment and Testing Considerations for Reducing SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in K-12 Schools. (2020). https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Risk-Assessment-and-Testing-Protocols-for-Reducing-SARS-CoV-2-Transmission-in-K-12-Schools_Final-10-14-2020.pdf. Impact: This report, published in October 2020, was the first to provide guidance to public health officials, schools, and community leaders on using COVID-19 screening testing to reopen schools. I discussed the work on Washington Post Live, the Post’s premier interview platform, along with former FDA Commissioner and CMS Administrator Mark McClellan, and Rockefeller Foundation President Raj Shah.
• Rivers, C., Martin, E., Watson, C., Schoch-Spana, M., Cicero, A., Inglesby, T. Resetting Our Response: Changes Needed in the US Approach to COVID-19. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/resetting-our-response-changes-needed-in-the-us-approach-to-covid-19. Impact: My recommendations were discussed in the New York Times, Wired, and the Wall Street Journal.
• McClellan, M., Rivers, C., Silcox, C. Legislative and Regulatory Steps for a National COVID-19 Testing Strategy. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/2020/legislative-and-regulatory-steps-for-a-national-covid-19-testing-strategy. Impact: Many of the recommendations in our August 2020 report were adopted into policy, including to invest $300 million in research and development to develop point of care testing; invest $45 billion in increased testing capacity; invest $6 billion in the supply chain that supports testing; invest $24 billion in testing and tracing programs. Actual enacted: $47.8 billion for testing and tracing; $10 billion for screening testing in schools; $10 billion for emergency medical supplies including but not limited to testing supplies.
• Cicero, A., Potter, C., Kirk Sell, T., Rivers, C., Schoch-Spana, M. Filling in the Blanks: National Research Needs to Guide Decisions about Reopening Schools in the United States. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/2020/filling-in-the-blanks-national-research-needs-to-guide-decisions-about-reopening-schools-in-the-united-states. Impact: The recommendations in this were report were introduced as legislation to the House Energy and Commerce Committee by Rep Anthony Gonzalez (H.R.7029; 25 co-sponsors). Companion legislation was introduced to the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee by Sen Mike Braun (S.4277; co-sponsors Senators Casey, Rubio and Brown).
• Mullen, L., Kobokovich, Trotochaud, M., Kirk Sell, T., Rivers, C., Martin, E., Cicero, A., Inglesby, T, Watson, C. Operational Toolkit for Businesses Considering Reopening or Expanding Operations in COVID-19. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/operational-toolkit-for-businesses-considering-reopening-or-expanding-operations-in-covid-19
• Rivers, C., Martin, E., Gottlieb, S., Watson, C., Schoch-Spana, M., Mullen, L., Kirk Sell, T., Warmbrod, K. L., Hosangadi, D., Kobokovich, A., Potter, C., Cicero, A., Inglesby, T. Public Health Principles for a Phased Reopening During COVID-19: Guidance for Governors. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/public-health-principles-for-a-phased-reopening-during-covid-19-guidance-for-governors. Impact: This report was used as the basis for reopening plans in several jurisdictions, including Maryland, Hawaii, Cleveland and Washington, D.C.
• Gottlieb, S., Rivers, C., McClellan, M., Silvis, L., Watson, C. National coronavirus response: A road map to reopening. (2020). https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/national-coronavirus-response-a-road-map-to-reopening. Impact: This was the first report to describe how to exit “lockdowns” safely, and it was among the first to recommend cloth masks. It was featured as a call-out box on every New York Times article on the pandemic for multiple weeks. It was recommended by the National Governor’s Association, multiple Congressional offices, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation, and more. It received extensive media coverage and President Trump was asked about it during a press conference.
• McClellan, M., Gottlieb, S., Mostashari, F., Rivers, C., Silvis, L. A National COVID-19 Surveillance System: Achieving Containment. (2020).
• Watson, C., Cicero, A., Blumenstock, J., Fraser, M., A National Plan to Enable Comprehensive COVID-19 Case Finding and Contact Tracing in the US. (2020). Link. Monograph. Impact: This report was the first to address the issue of contact tracing and propose a target for scaling up the workforce during COVID-19. The number proposed in the report (100,000 contact tracers for the US) has been used by legislators, public health organizations like ASTHO and NACCHO, and news organizations as the target for workforce development. President Joe Biden has adopted this target as an official goal for his administration.
• Rivers, C., Martin, E., Meyer, D., Inglesby, T., Cicero, A. Modernizing and Expanding Outbreak Science to Support Better Decision Making During Public Health Crises: Lessons for COVID-19 and Beyond. (2020). Monograph. Link. Impact; This report was the first since 2014 to describe a National Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. The idea received widespread media attention. The center was official signed into an executive order in January 2020 and received $200 million of funding in spring of 2020.

2018-2019

Refereed works

• Watson, C., Toner, E. S., Shearer, M. P., Rivers, C. M., Meyer, D., Hurtado, C., … & Inglesby, T. (2019). Clade X: A Pandemic Exercise. Health Security, 17 (5), 410-417. https://doi.org/10.1089/hs.2019.0097

• George, D. B., Taylor, W., Shaman, J., Rivers, C. M., Paul, B., O’Toole, T., Johansson, M., Hirschman, L., Biggerstaff, M., Asher, J. & Reich, N. G. (2019). Technology to advance infectious disease forecasting for outbreak management. Nature Communications, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11901-7

• Rivers, C. M., Chretien, J. P., Riley, S., Pavlin, J. A., Woodward, A., Brett-Major, D., Berry, I. M., Morton, L., Jarman, R. G., Biggerstaff, M., Johansson, M. A., Reich, N.G., Meyer, D., Snyder, M. R., Pollett, S. (2019). Using “outbreak science” to strengthen the use of models during epidemics. Nature Communications, 10(1), 3102. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11067-2. Impact: This paper has been cited over 100 times. It served as one of the precursors for the establishment of the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.

• Inglesby, T., Cicero, A., Rivers, C. M., & Zhang, W. (2019). Biosafety and biosecurity in the era of synthetic biology: Meeting the challenges in China and the US. Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity, 1(2), 73-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobb.2019.09.003

• Ravi, S., Snyder, M., Rivers, C. M. (2018). Review of International Efforts to Strengthen the Global Outbreak Response System Since the 2014-16 West Africa Ebola Epidemic. Health Policy and Planning, Volume 34, Issue 1, February 2019, Pages 47–54, https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czy102

• Ball, J. D., Prosperi, M. A., Brown, A., Chen, X., Kenah, E., Yang, Y., Cummings, D. & Rivers, C. M. (2018). The role of benzathine penicillin G in predicting and preventing all-cause acute respiratory disease in military recruits: 1991–2017. Epidemiology & Infection, 146(14), 1854-1860. doi:10.1017/S0950268818001838

  Monographs and policy reports

• Rivers, C., Trotochaud, M., Martin, E., Sauer, L. Evaluation of the UN OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data. (2019). Commissioned report for UN stakeholders; not publicly available.

• Rivers, C., Cicero, A., Connell, N., Trotochaud, M., Warmbrod, L., Song, J., Inglesby, T., Zhang, W. (2019). Biosafety and Biosecurity in the Era of Synthetic Biology: Perspectives from the United States and China. Meeting report. https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/pubs\_archive/pubs-pdfs/2019/190916-ChinaUSmtgReport.pdf.

• Watson, C., Kirk Sell, T., Watson, M., Rivers, C., Hurtado, C., Shearer, M., Gelata, A., Inglesby, T. (2018). Technologies to address Global Catastrophic Biological Risks. Monograph.

2013-2017    

Refereed works

• Lofgren, E. T. (2016). Risks of death and severe disease in patients with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, 2012–2015. American Journal of Epidemiology, 184(6), 460-464. doi:10.1093/aje/kww013
• Diseases, 9(6): e0003652. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003652. Impact: This paper has been cited over 300 times.
• Majumder, M. S., Rivers, C.M., Lofgren, E., & Fisman, D. (2014). Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus reproductive number and case fatality rate for the spring 2014 Saudi Arabia outbreak: Insights from publicly available data. PLoS Currents Outbreaks 18(6). doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.98d2f8f3382d84f390736cd5f5fe133c. Impact: This paper has been cited over 150 times.
• Lofgren, E. T., Halloran, M. E., Rivers, C. M., Drake, J. M., Porco, T. C., Lewis, B, Yang, W., Vespignani, A., Shaman, J., Eisenberg, J.N., & Eisenberg, M. C. (2014). Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(51), 18095-18096. doi:10.1073/pnas.1421551111. Impact: This paper has been cited over 100 times.
• Rivers, C. M., Lofgren, E. T., Marathe, M., Eubank, S., & Lewis, B. L. (2014). Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Currents Outbreaks 6(6). doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.4d41fe5d6c05e9df30ddce33c66d084c. Impact: This paper has been cited over 250 times.
• Rivers, C. M., & Lewis, B. L. (2014). Ethical research standards in a world of big data. F1000Research, 3(38), 38. Impact: This paper has been cited over 150 times; research groups have used it to guide their approach to privacy when using social media data.
• Lau, E. H., Zheng, J., Tsang, T. K., Liao, Q., Lewis, B., Brownstein, J. S., Sanders, S., Wong, J.Y., Mekaru, S.R., Rivers, C. M., & Wu, P. (2014). Accuracy of epidemiological inferences based on publicly available information: Retrospective comparative analysis of line lists of human cases infected with influenza A (H7N9) in China. BMC Medicine, 12(1), 88. doi:10.1186/1741-7015-12-88
• Young, S. D., Rivers, C. M., & Lewis, B. (2014). Methods of using real-time social media technologies for detection and remote monitoring of HIV outcomes. Preventive Medicine, 63, 112-115. doi:10.1016/j.ypmed.2014.01.024. Impact: This paper has been cited over 200 times.
• Rivers, C. M., Lum, K., Lewis, B., & Eubank, S. (2013). Estimating human cases of Avian Influenza A (H7N9) from poultry exposure. PLoS Currents Outbreaks 15(5). doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.264e737b489bef383fbcbaba60daf928
• Parikh, N., Swarup, S., Stretz, P. E., Rivers, C. M., Lewis, B. L., Marathe, M. V., Eubank, S.G., Barrett, C.L., Lum, K., & Chungbaek, Y. (2013). Modeling human behavior in the aftermath of a hypothetical improvised nuclear detonation. In Proceedings of the 2013 International 6Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems (pp. 949-956).Monographs and policy reports
• National Science and Technology Council Report Towards Epidemic Prediction: Federal Efforts and Opportunities in Outbreak Modeling. (2016). Report from the Executive Office of the President. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/towards\_epidemic\_prediction-federal\_efforts\_and\_opportunities.pdf
• Health of the Force. (2017). Report for US Army senior leaders. https://phc.amedd.army.mil/topics/campaigns/hof/Pages/default.aspx
• Health of the Force. (2016). Report for US Army senior leaders.